Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and caused turmoil, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an highly split population where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has taken place in academia but hardly any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the basics. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author advocates unity or the current situation. Each composes two pieces that aim for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and societal figures, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said the writer. "Debate suggests an recognition of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must determine what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "Somebody will win here and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has has something to learn from the other's arguments."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should participate in the debate, stated the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
